Three Ways Cricket Can Evolve by 2030

A mini-manifesto for how science and reason can change the game for the better.

Last week, I had the pleasure of chatting to Jarrod Kimber on his Good Areas podcast, which ended up being a wide ranging discussion of all things swing bowling, with a few other topics thrown in for good measure. While I’m sure all the readers of this blog will enjoy listening to me ramble on for an hour or so (?!), I thought I would also post some clips here, along with more thoughts on the topics we discussed.

It was actually Sam’s idea to make this into a bit of a ‘hot take’ blog (he’s always been more adventurous than me in throwing out bold ideas) where I call out in writing some of the things that Cricket-With-A-Capital-C doesn’t do so well, and suggest ways to make it better.

1. Stop Forcing One-To-One Correlations That Don’t Exist

This first point will hopefully surprise no-one. My biggest gripe in all of cricket is the oversimplification of what is actually a very complicated sport. Of course we see this across the world of sport but it seems to be particularly egregious in cricket; this batter got out because of their trigger movement, this team won because they chose to bowl first, the ball swung because it was overcast(!)

The reason this argument is hard to win is that one-to-one correlations make us feel safe. If we see something apparently magical, and look up into the sky and see some big fluffy clouds, our brains want to correlate the two, because the unknown is inherently scary. But that’s also the same thinking that caused the Ancient Greeks to think a god in a chariot pulled the sun across the sky, and I think we know better than that now.

Instead, we should think about things more holistically, with a consideration for the multitude of factors at play. For swing, I talk a lot about the three main factors - the bowler, the ball and the atmospherics - and you have to weigh up and consider all three things when assessing a given situation.

It helps that we now have research and methods for doing this and I just hope in 5 years it becomes more mainstream. Having said that, the discussion of reverse swing in the IPL with the lifting of the saliva ban makes me feel we are still a way off, or even going backwards (Jarrod makes this point when talking about cloud cover).

The same goes for match and player outcomes, where media pundits often see what happened as the only thing that possibly could have happened, rather than one outcome in a range. Cricket has a huge luck based component, it is the only sport where a player has one ‘life’ per match (2 innings games have two), so one tiny moment can have a huge impact on outcomes, statistics, and other performance measures.

It may not pay the bills in our sensationalist culture, but I would at least like there to be more discussion of probabilistic outcomes in 5 years time.

2. Start Measuring Bowling Technique

I spoke to Jarrod at the end of the podcast about the contrast between cricket and baseball when it comes to ‘designing’ deliveries and variations. It doesn’t feel like cricket has the same in-depth knowledge of how to create new variations as baseball; instead a lot of focus is on refining skills that have been passed down for generations.

As Jarrod mentions, we lack the technology to tell us what a bowler is actually doing with the ball. We don’t measure seam position, we don’t measure rotation rate and axis, we don’t fully understand the importance of ball condition.

Part of this is the same cause as the one-to-one correlations: we’d prefer one thing to give us the answer rather than taking the time to dissect the problem in its entirety. I was lucky enough to have the time and resource to do this for swing, but we still need the inquisitiveness and skill to implement it across a wider range.

This can lead to new variations, both spin and seam, more ways to exploit favourable conditions, and a bit of a re-balance between bat and ball in white ball cricket. And, let’s not forget, some more opportunities to really nerd out over cricket aerodynamics.

3. Relearn The Art Of Ball Management

I was going to name this last one ‘stop demonising ball-tampering’, but I thought that would be a bit too inflammatory. Instead, this is more about appreciating what an awesome piece of sports equipment a cricket ball is, and how it shapes the best parts of the game.

The fact the ball changes throughout the game is pretty unique in sport. It starts off new, it swings, it seams, it pings off the bat, then becomes older and worn. No other game I can think of has this variable, and I don’t think we embrace it enough.

Now yes, I am mainly talking about reverse swing, which I believe should have its place in all forms of elite cricket, mainly because it’s really, really cool. If the ball was made differently, or bowling speeds were different, we wouldn’t be able to have both conventional and reverse swing, and so we should cherish both of these by looking after the ball properly.

I have talked about the rough side being the key factor in achieving reverse, so I would personally like to see innovation in how teams are able to create roughness on the ball. Obviously no ‘foreign objects’ or deliberate scratching, but throwing the ball in on one side, deliberately landing the ball on the same spot when bowling, adding dirt to the ball (Sam thinks Atherton was ahead of his time), should all be fair game in my eyes. Let’s let people get creative.

Even for conventional swing, in the current meta where wobble-seam dominates red ball cricket, the art of maintaining a shiny side is at risk of being lost. Yes the white ball swings when new, and is impossible to shine, but so often you see the red ball looking like a club ball after 30 overs in Test cricket. Shining both sides is the start, but teams really buying into ball management should be a must in the long form of the game.

Anyway, I wanted this to be a shorter blog than usual, but I hope there is some food for thought. If I’m lucky enough to have anyone else involved in elite cricket reading this, please help me spread the ideas, or get in touch and let’s start moving the sport in the right direction.

Cricket is a magical game, but still suffers from anti-intellectualism at times. Why is it bad to live and breath the game like Marnus and Steve Smith, when all other sports have complete fanatics competing at the top? Hopefully new technology will push in the right direction, but the mindset also needs to be there.

Thanks for reading, and listening to the podcast if you’ve done that too, it’s always nice to be asked to talk about your passion. I hope those of you starting your seasons this week go well (and shine both sides of the ball), and I hope to be back in your inboxes shortly.